The Federal Government would overwhelmingly win at the polls if a national election was held today, private research data focused on key electorates has shown, in light of the Coalition’s handling of the coronavirus pandemic.
Both Prime Minister Scott Morrison and Opposition leader Anthony Albanese have been touring industry sectors in recent weeks, in what would appear to be an election campaign blitz following this year’s Federal Budget.
While both major parties have been pushing the same message, trying to secure jobs amid Australia’s biggest economic hit since World War II, it’s Mr Morrison’s government that appears to have weathered the pandemic the best.
“There is a real identification with Scott Morrison and his leadership and his government through that process,” Simon Welsh, from the Redbridge Group, told 9News.
Data provided exclusively to 9News based on information from experts drawn from both major parties has been tracking the public’s satisfaction throughout 2020.
The polling focused on two ultra-marginal Labor seats in New South Wales: Macquarie, north-west of Sydney, and Dobell, north of the city.
A majority of polled voters in both electorates said they support eliminating COVID-19 in Australia and also keeping the nation’s borders closed over reopening the economy and living with the risk of transmission.
Majorities in both electorates also said they support keeping the Victorian border closed, with the Macquarie seat returning a 72/28 per cent split in favour of the restriction, and a 71/29 per cent split in Dobell.
The polling numbers that show support for individual leaders, however, could pose concerns for Labor.
Both seats, who typically vote in support of Labor, polled as strongly trusting Mr Morrison over Mr Albanese to keep them safe during the pandemic (Macquarie: 63 per cent for Mr Morrison, 37 per cent for Mr Albanese, Dobell: 66 per cent Mr Morrison, 34 per cent Mr Albanese).
Almost two-thirds of polled voters in both electorates also sided with Mr Morrison to lead the economy recovery into the future and to protect and create jobs.
“Things like JobKeeper and the Budget have put [the Liberal party] in the court of those working class voters in those key electorates in NSW and Queensland,” Mr Welsh said.
“This would be an existential crisis for the federal Labor Party.”
If a federal election was called today, not only would the Morrison government win on first preferences in both electorates (Macquarie: 51.2 per cent Liberal/27.9 per cent ALP, Dobell: 53.2 per cent Liberal, 31.1 per cent ALP), but also in the primary vote, because Labor’s rating has dropped 10 percentage points in both areas.
The damning figures come as ALP insiders grapple with the political side-effects of the pandemic.
“Labor knows the Government has won support during the pandemic,” said Nine Network Political Editor Chris Uhlmann. “Which is why the party is convinced the Prime Minister will call an election next year.”
Australia generally holds its federal election every three years. The previous election, won by the Morrison government, took place in May 2019.
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